All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

As in the moments following the 2016 US election, win probabilities took center stage in public discourse after New England’s comeback victory in the Super Bowl over Atlanta. Unfortunately, n…

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All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

Michael Lopez on X: All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful - a dive into NFL win probabilities / X